Former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has predicted that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will finish third in the 2027 presidential election.
Speaking on Sunday Politics, a Channels Television programme, El-Rufai, now a leading figure in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition — said his calculations show that the president has “no pathway” to secure victory on the first ballot.
“Tinubu will be third in the 2027 election. I have done my maths and I can tell you Tinubu has no pathway to win. The worst-case scenario is that there will be no outright winner in the first round,” he stated.
The former governor urged Nigerians to judge the government based on their lived reality.
“Ask yourself: is your life better now under President Tinubu?” he asked, adding that there was “no pretense of good intentions” from the administration and that Nigerians were already in a position to evaluate its performance.
On his own political career, El-Rufai dismissed speculation about ministerial ambitions, recalling that he had served as a minister at 23 and had no desire to return. He, however, admitted that he had been considered for the role of Energy Minister, for which he had prepared a detailed reform roadmap.
Once a staunch member of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and a strong campaigner for Tinubu in 2023, El-Rufai has now aligned with opposition figures including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi.
He also challenged the notion that governors dictate electoral outcomes.
“I was in APC yet I did not deliver my state. Bola Tinubu did not win his state. It is the people who decide who wins,” he said.
On insecurity, El-Rufai faulted the government’s strategy, accusing it of exaggerating victories against terrorists.
“They claim terrorists have been killed, but their elements are still found in the streets,” he argued.
Addressing promises by some of his new allies, such as Chibuike Amaechi and Peter Obi, to serve only one term if elected, El-Rufai expressed doubts about such commitments.
“I want them to stop making these kinds of promises. Nobody believes them, because things change once they get into office. It’s even unfair to the people,” he maintained.
